The EU chose to ‘be’-friend troublesome Ukraine and ‘de’-friend Russia who had reliably supplied natural gas, oil, and both nitrogen and potassium fertilizers on schedule as per contract decade in and out. After which Russia did what? Kept on delivering those vital commodities as contracted — going so far as to offer increased volumes of gas (which the EU greedily gobbled up). Now, the EU has failed to rethink its priorities, and Russia is reprioritizing its loyalties. The European Union will receive the contractual minimum gas and oil — Russia has continued to do so — even as the EU connived with America to embarrass and injure it. Russia has, reasonably, respected the EU’s wishes as expressed by its actions.
The message the EU has made perfectly clear: “We want only the minimum from our relationship now through its end”. Russia has shaken its head, sighed, earmarked the contractual minimum for delivery to the EU, and sold the options on the production retained to other very eager clients. Respectful clients. Clients who don’t piss in the moneybags. Did Russia realize the criminally negligent idiocy the EU was committing when alienating Russia’s merchant-client affections? Oh, of course. Were that EU and its predictable consequences Russia’s to fret over? Of course not. Russia’s governmental responsibility #1 is to secure the well-being of the Russian community — citizens, corporations, and the state that is their support infrastructure.
So. In June Russia, the EU made clear its priorities and invoked its contractual permission to ship only the contract-fulfilling minimum gas and oil. And the EU is responsible for and must live (and die) by the consequences of its choices. Now gas and oil are largely spoken for — with all available volume unable to arrive before the end of summer. The only gas and oil that can arrive “NOW — better ‘yesterday’” is the Russian pipeline volumes. The easily projectable summer heat wave death toll by the time the last ‘heat-stress’ toe-tag has been tallied and the last ‘excess mortality’ added to it? Likely upwards of 400,000. And then in the winter the wave of deaths as those weakened by heat-exacerbated long Omnicron fight winter reinfection. All because the EU chose American adventurism over European lives.
What does Russia gain? It gains the security of new eager grateful clients. It gains the EU being increasingly irrelevant to its bottom line. And it gains — sooner now than later — a tidal-wave sea-change in the EU attitude to the situation it has tolerated far too long. That being? Their tolerance of NATO as the de facto alternative to the European Union parliament as Europe’s real government.
The EU has its members’ interests as its primary concern. NATO? Not so much. As America has a big say in NATO policy and acts? And as the UK’s no longer in the EU (belligerent towards it even)? And Canada has a say? And Turkey? Then? (I’m Canadian.) What? The? Is? ‘Europe’? Doing? Deferring? So? Much? To? NATO? Given that the EU nations all on their own have $300B/ year budgeted for their militaries. That’s 6 TIMES of Russia’s defense budget.
Anyway. Russia gains a shift to respectful and reliable clients. Russia gains the minimization of the EU’s relevance. And it gains the acceleration of the EU rendering Ukraine’s will in the NATO/EU issue irrelevant. Impotent. By talking directly to Russia and committing to a permanent EU ban on admission of Ukraine into either organization. A Taoist agnostic here. But. Were I superstitious? I’d have a strong suspicion the angels are on the side of Moscow — because … hellish weather? For instance, Europe could boycott Russian imports….but they probably will not. Because, literally, many Governments in Western Europe especially, will fall when put under the economic effects of such an action.
China could likely take action if they found anything wrong with what the Russians are doing in Ukraine. China probably, if not approved, certainly may well have sympathy for Russia’s position. India is actually a fairly large trading partner, and if not exactly an ally, certainly more kindly disposed towards Russia than most of the West. As well, China and India stand to benefit from the West’s actions towards Russia, giving them the opportunity to get a larger market share of Russian energy exports. And it is very likely possible that India and China, and much of the nonwestern world, are kind of disdainful of most of the Western World’s reaction to the Russian intervention in Syria, and particularly their Military Operations in Ukraine. They may well view this as the west wringing their hands over the fact that a predominantly White European Nation, Russia, is doing what White Europeans do, and the West is only concerned because it is happening to another White European Nation.