He obsessed with the way Gaddafi was taken & lynched by his own people, and undoubtedly also about the fate of Saddam Hussein, at the hands of the new Iraqi government. For this reason, surrender – in any way that sees him unconditionally giving up power – is unlikely. He would, therefore, need ironclad guarantees, WRT his continued life, health, freedom, and opulent wealth, I get him to step down. I don’t know how these would be guaranteed, but nothing less would be sufficient to accomplish his ouster, w/o incredible bloodshed, and possible open civil war.
Even fleeing to a friendly country – which is vanishingly few and far between – would be no strong inducement, since his current lifestyle is unbelievably luxurious – opulent, like royalty of old – and inimitable elsewhere. Even attempting to do so by an EXTERNAL force, would be horrific, uniting the Russian people, many of whom are their equivalent of Trumpanzees: low-information, gullible in the face of disinformation, susceptible to propaganda, fiercely loyal to their strongman leader, who embodies (while feeding into, as well as feeding off) their PoV, of being a chosen people, destined for greatness, and robbed of this destiny by the evil of others. They’d resist what they would be encouraged to see as a foreign power-play (and, face it, there’d be more than a dash of truth in that), drawing out the whole affair, perhaps for years. Very few people around the world – the big examples being Italians, in the middle of WW II, and today’s Trumpanzees – would actively seek outsiders to oust (and execute!) their nation’s leader.
So, sanctions would have to be given time to do their thing, fomenting resistance amongst his oligarchs and/or military/security leadership. They’d have to be the ones to pull the trigger – perhaps literally! – on any attempt to oust Putin. After that, it’s up to them, whether he’s handed over to the ICC, trips & falls on an icepick 75 times, or simply ‘retires’ to his favorite dacha. The obstinacy to go to the end of his objectives, but also certain blindness due to the lack of contradiction in his close circle. Nobody dares to talk to Putin anymore to give him a real vision of what is going on. The Russian army is held in check, and it does not progress as Putin had imagined.
There will be no quick success, but rather an extremely costly long-term war for a country that will quickly run out of money to finance its war if China does not come to the rescue. Putin seems to live so much in his bubble, that he doesn’t see all this. He thinks everything is fine and probably doesn’t even realize the heresy of this war he has started. He is going mad. His defenders will say that he is not and that this is just my Western view, but after hearing his last televised speech, I can tell you that Putin is really going crazy. If the people in his close circle were not so afraid of him, they could give him a contrarian vision to help him stop this madness. But they are unable to do so, out of fear!
So Putin will continue to the end to take control of Ukraine in its entirety. This is his goal, and nothing can divert him from it. In his madness, Putin does not even realize that he is weakening Russia in the long run, strengthening NATO as never before since the end of the Cold War, and will turn Russia into a satellite country of China, which will come out the big winner of this war no matter what. Since February 23, when the Kremlin tanks began lining up towards the neighboring country, numerous nations have imposed economic sanctions, offered military aid to Ukraine, and condemned the attacks. Videos and photos on social networks show since last week numerous groups of people demonstrating in some of the main cities of Russia, including Moscow and St. Petersburg.
According to data from OVD-Info, a human rights monitoring group, more than 6,000 people have been arrested in Russia for going out to protest since the invasion began on February 24. General Franz Halder carried a loaded pistol with him when seeing Hitler, but never summoned the courage to kill Hitler. Hitler survived multiple assassination attempts. Christians are conditioned to attribute everything they don’t understand to God. It’s this kind of lazy thinking that has me looking down on them. What we’re looking at in Ukraine is simply an authoritarian tyrant trying to fix domestic political problems by picking a fight with a smaller neighbor. Either Putin is already deep in shit or he’s losing his marbles because this war was very ill-advised. Several of his generals advised against it, in fact. In true authoritarian fashion, he fired them.